According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on Sept. 8, Free-On-Board (FOB) China M10 and 210R wafer prices fell to $0.149/pc and $0.156/pc, respectively, down 1.97% and 2.50% week on week. The rally seen in mid-August has failed to sustain momentum, with prices returning to a downward trend. Industry sources attributed the decline primarily to weakening downstream demand, which has left wafer suppliers with little choice but to lower prices to facilitate sales. One trade participant noted that buyers now commonly close deals several cents per piece below manufacturers’ initial offers.
Despite the weaker market, operating rates across wafer producers have remained largely unchanged, as the market watches how the upstream polysilicon market develops following last week’s reported production-cut agreement. The agreement refers to an industry meeting held in Sichuan last week involving the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and major polysilicon manufacturers, which industry sources said was aimed at launching a production-control initiative. The initiative reportedly targets total 2026 polysilicon output of 1.0-1.1 million metric tons (MT), an approximate 20% reduction from 2025 output, with the same target maintained for 2027.
Although a source at a leading polysilicon manufacturer confirmed that the meeting took place, its specific details and outcomes have not been officially verified. Another source questioned the likely effectiveness of the initiative, noting that the agreement’s legal enforceability remains uncertain and that the reported annual output target would still be sufficient to meet end-market demand. The source added that the planned fourth-quarter suspensions and upgrades are primarily aimed at reducing energy consumption to comply with national standards. Without actual capacity exit, the source said, the other efforts appear somewhat superficial.
With the polysilicon price outlook still uncertain, some wafer manufacturers are seeking to lower raw-material costs by sourcing material for near-term delivery from the futures market at around CNY 37/kg and supplementing it with lower-grade spot material. Polysilicon production, meanwhile, continues to rise. Domestic output reached around 118,900 MT in August, up 13.1% month over month, according to the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. Based on manufacturers’ production plans, September output is expected to rise further to around 124,000 MT, up approximately 4.4%.
Was this helpful?
