Global manufacturing capacity remains severely overbuilt relative to near-term demand, according to the latest PV Supply Technology and Policy Report from Intertek CEA. Global installations are projected to reach 638 GW in 2026, while polysilicon manufacturing capacity is set to hit approximately 2,034 GW and module capacity is projected at 1,908 GW, leaving a supply of more than 1.2 TW above global installation demand.
U.S. installations are forecast to remain flat annually through 2030 as domestic buyers navigate persistent policy risks and regulatory unknowns. The global slowdown in 2026 is driven primarily by China, where domestic deployment has dropped sharply following the phase-out of grid subsidies and a lack of immediate demand drivers.
Importing components into the U.S. market has become significantly riskier following a wave of parallel trade actions initiated throughout the second quarter. Preliminary determinations under the Solar 4 investigations set combined duty rates exceeding 100% on cells and modules originating from India, Indonesia, and Laos, with preliminary countervailing duties taking effect July 12, 2026. Furthermore, new Anti-Circumvention cases targeting exports from Ethiopia and South Korea introduce retroactive duty liability for active supply chains.
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